Paris Attack, Reassessing Iran, and Venezuela’s Tiananmen Moment

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Attack in Paris Ahead of Sunday’s Poll: Once again Paris fell victim to violence when a policeman was killed on the Champs Elysees, Paris’ most famous boulevard. The attack was swiftly claimed by the Islamic State and has the potential to change the course of the presidential election by playing into the narrative pushed by candidates on the right. Far-right candidate Marine Le Pen has made immigration, terrorism, and anti-globalization central themes in her campaign.

News of the shooting broke as the eleven candidates were taking part in a live televised debate. Le Pen seized on the incident immediately, stating: “Not everything has been done to protect our citizens. What we need is the resources to make sure we can combat the Islamist terrorism. I don’t want our youth to get used to living with this danger. Naivety is over.” Le Pen and two other leading candidates, center-right candidate Francois Fillon and centrist independent Emmanuel Macron, announced they were suspending their campaigns. A first round of voting for the 11 candidates takes place Sunday, and the top two candidates will participate in a runoff on May 7. A poll taken before the shooting showed Macron in front and Le Pen falling further behind him, while Fillon and hard-left candidate Jean-Luc Melanchon had both narrowed Macron and Le Pen’s lead over them.

*Please see below for more reads on the geopolitical importance of the French election

Trump’s Reassessment of Iran: The Trump administration has doubled down on fighting ISIS, attacked the Syrian military, and has told North Korea that this aggression will not stand. Trump’s pivot to a national security focus however has not lead to a dismantling of “the disastrous [nuclear arms security] deal with Iran” that he claimed would happen while on the campaign trail. Rex Tillerson, the US Secretary of State, however has said there would be a full-scale review of Iran’s actions and labeled the country as “the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism.” The Middle East is clearly in a state (or really has been for the past few decades) of flux and ever more so with Turkey’s recent referendum, involvement of a Russia-US behind the scenes tug of war being played out in Syria, and Iraq battling ISIS. All of this has strengthened Iran’s position as a regional power. The most likely scenario is that the United States in the near term will not make major changes to the current US-Iran dynamic. Partly because there are no other good options and mainly because there’s enough pressing foreign and domestic issues (like resurrecting a possible new healthcare bill) at play to keep the administration busy.

Venezuela’s Tiananmen Moment: On a day marking the country’s independence from Spain, the “mother of all protests” rocked the capital of Caracas. Three people were shot and killed as the population protested President Nicolas Maduro, food shortages, and rising unemployment. Then a woman, known simply as “La Dama” and wearing the country’s flag draped around her neck, stepped in front of a National Guard truck, stopping it in its tracks. She placed her hand on the truck as a voice over a loudspeaker barked out. A object was tossed at her, and she calmly moved out of its way. The truck began to reverse. Instead of walking away, “La Dama” followed it. Lilian Tintori, the wife of an opposition leader, said of the iconic moment: “I feel so proud of Caracas. Look at the photo–the video–of the woman who stood in front of the tank. What did the tank do? It reversed. It has to reverse.”

Jehovah’s Witnesses Find No Shelter in Russia: On Thursday, the country’s Supreme Court banned the religion from operating in the country. The group’s headquarters will close as well as its 395 local chapters in Europe’s most populous country. Jehovah’s Witnesses have some 170,000 members in Russia and have been under investigation by the Russian state for allegations of distributing “extremist literature,” although experts have questioned the legitimacy of the claims. International human rights organizations such as Human Rights Watch (HRW) see the move as yet another attack on freedom of expression and religion in Putin’s Russia.

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More Reads on the French Elections:

• Your complete guide to the French presidential elections (TIME)
• Far-leftist Jean-Luc Melanchon is the election’s late-game spoiler. Could he bring growth back to France? (NYT) Is he the new face of French populism? (New Republic). French economist Thomas Piketty is backing him (Newsweek)
• Everything you ever wanted to know about Marine Le Pen (BBC)

• The French Disconnection–Could Marine Le Pen really become president? (NYT)
• The big winner in the French election will be Vladimir Putin (Quartz)
• Let’s have some fun! Which European leader are you? Take this quiz (CNN)
• And let’s feel some hope: French citizens in the Roya Valley on the Italian border have taken in dozens of refugees. “These are people who are fleeing, just like our grandparents did during the war. That’s all an immigrant is.” (CNN)

Weekend Reads:

• Freedom has diminished in the world for the 11th consecutive year. And how millennials are fueling the recession of liberal democracies. (WaPo)   
• Russia is responsible for the above and a Russian government think tank “controlled by Vladimir Putin developed a plan to swing the 2016 U.S. presidential election to Donald Trump and undermine voters’ faith in the American electoral system.” (Reuters)
• Russia is a criminal state that supports organized crime (European Council on Foreign Relations)
• Why there was a racist celebrity at the White House (Slate)
• Gluten-free, paleo diets, and what ancestral humans really ate (Scientific American)
• Stephen Curry has revolutionized the game of basketball, and is an incredible player who is on one of the most dominant basketball franchises ever. And he’s a nice guy. (GQ)
• The Berkeley clashes and the war between the far left and the far right (Esquire)
• Jake Tapper is the closest thing we have to a Walter Mondale. And CNN’s decision to hire him was because he’s “Smart, witty, and holds everybody’s feet to the fire.” (GQ)
• Is Trump being played by Mexico? And how Trump might be pushing Mexico and other countries closer to China (The Atlantic)

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