India and China’s Complicated Relationship. Frequent Repetitions & Falsehoods.

“A reliable way to make people believe in falsehoods is frequent repetition, because familiarity is not easily distinguished from truth. Authoritarian institutions and marketers have always known this fact.” – Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow

“Nothing in life is as important as you think it is, while you are thinking about it.” – Ibid

India and China’s Complicated Relationship: Almost 60 years ago, the Dalai Lama and several thousand of his Buddhist followers fled from Chinese oppression in Tibet and established an alternative government in Dharamshala, India. This past weekend “Thank You India” celebrations were planned, a gesture of the Buddhists’ continued gratitude to their host. The commemoration was to feature an original song of thanks and a rally to be held in a New Delhi stadium that had been reserved for the festivities. Instead, India’s foreign secretary sent directives to top officials to discard their invitations and boycott the merriment, lest their attendance send the wrong signal to the Chinese government at a time when India feels it is lagging behind its neighbor’s strengthening economy and burgeoning military presence in south Asia.

China has been expanding its influence among India’s traditional allies and neighbors, from building seaports in Sri Lanka and Pakistan, to sending warships to the East Indian Ocean during an emergency in the Maldives, to increasing trade and political ties with Nepal. India continues to encourage trade ties with China, to court Chinese investments, and to modernize its own military, yet it recognizes the disparity and understands it is losing ground to an emboldened competitor. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi probably appreciated the “Thank You India” gesture, but realized it was just coming at a too politically precarious time.

The Hawks in the Trump Administration Are Now at the Helm: President Trump’s latest administration nominees, John Bolton as national security adviser and Mike Pompeo as Secretary of State, means two things: the Iran nuclear agreement – the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – is surely on its deathbed, and the US is much closer to another war. Bolton is a rancorous opponent of all things diplomacy-related, a hawkish neocon who has advocated bombing Iran, North Korea, and even Cuba, despite never having served in combat in a foreign country. With Trump’s repeated invective aimed at the JCPOA now supported by two incoming top level officials, it doesn’t look good for continuing approval of the deal on May 12th’s sign-off date.

European signatories to the 2015 agreement are scrambling to find ways to hold it together in the event that the US leaves. But Trump’s open hostility has already resulted in a diminution of Western capital and trading partners, something that itself constitutes a violation of the JCPOA. Risk-averse companies like French oil giant Total would no doubt cease any trade or investment in Iran, and large scale sales of Boeing and Airbus planes would also be jeopardized if Trump dumps the deal. The president seems to love the tension and uncertainty he creates, but important US allies aren’t amused or comforted by his erratic pronouncements. Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), on a visit to China, Japan, and South Korea, said our allies were having trouble understanding the president’s “chaotic” foreign policy. Not mincing words, Warren said Trumpian diplomacy has been a “terrible mistake.”

– Lebanon is overrun with rubbish. Human Rights Watch calls it “a national health crisis.” The government closed down a landfill in 2015 without replacing it, resulting in people dumping and burning waste on the streets, or simply throwing it all – everything from plastic to medical waste, clothes, and even astroturf – into the Mediterranean Sea. (BBC)

– Think skyscraper window washer is a dangerous job? Consider the abalone poacher. Divers in Hangberg, an impoverished fishing community in Cape Town, South Africa, risk their lives illegally foraging in deeper, more dangerous waters for the once plentiful seafood delicacy that sells for $200 a pound in Asia. (NYT)

– The Thai military has been ruling the country since 2014. But that might change if a Thai billionaire and his political party are able to run in 2019 without the military intervening. This automobile tycoon turned politician is taking some major risks and understands he “might go to jail tomorrow.” (The Guardian)

– The pundits and predictors say either the booming economy could be good for Republicans during midterm elections, or the president’s dismal approval ratings could be good for Democrats during midterm elections. This reminds us of what President Harry Truman once said: “Give me a one-handed Economist. All my economists say ‘on hand…’, then ‘but on the other…’” Right now, we are longing for some one-handed political pundits. (NPR)

– The US military has for the longest time claimed that it owns the night due to its use and effective application of night vision devices. But this might no longer be the case in Afghanistan, where “the Taliban more than doubled nighttime attacks from 2014 to 2017, according to one United States military official who described internal Pentagon data on the condition of anonymity.” (NYT)

– President Trump once said he would never tell former Secretary of the Veteran Affairs David Shulkin that he would be fired. And Trump’s staff is still officially saying Shulkin resigned, even though Shulkin is adamant that he was fired. Awkward. (Bustle, NBCNews)

– The President and First Lady attended church services Sunday in Palm Beach, Florida. But first, shortly after tweeting his wish to the nation to have a happy Easter Sunday, Trump raged at Democrats and the Mexican government for allowing a dangerous flow of illegal immigrants into the US, pledged “NO MORE DACA DEAL,” and threatened to end the North American Free Trade Agreement. Minutes before Trump’s hyperbolic twitter attack, “Fox and Friends” had aired a segment on immigration. (NYT)

– Israeli soldiers killed sixteen purportedly violent Palestinian demonstrators on Friday. They were part of a group marching toward the border to begin a six-week protest of the upcoming 70th anniversary of the founding of the Jewish state. On Sunday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan accused Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of being a terrorist, while Netanyahu called out Erdogan for indiscriminately bombing Kurdish civilians. (BBC)

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– “Federal health officials warned Friday that this year’s flu outbreak is more severe than any other since the 2009 swine flu pandemic, and that its intensity is still increasing.” (The Hill)

– Yesterday Kami Rita Sherpa, a 48-year-old Nepali climber, set off to “make history by climbing Mount Everest 22 times. He first climbed Everest in 1994 and completed his most recent ascent last May.” (BBC)

– “The author of a new book on President Donald Trump’s administration says White House counselor Kellyanne Conway is the ‘number one leaker’ in the White House.” (Slate)

– Speaking of falsehoods and frequent repetitions (and referencing today’s quotable nuts): Sinclair Broadcast Group (the largest television operator in the United States) has required “local television news anchors across the the country…to paradoxically warn viewers about the ‘troubling trend of irresponsible, one-sided news stories plaguing our country.’” (NY Mag)

– Speaking of television talking heads, Laura Ingraham will not be hosting her show on Fox News for one week after 14 companies said they would no longer advertise on her show. The reason? Ingraham mocked “David Hogg, one of the student-activists who became a voice for gun control after a shooter murdered 17 people at his high school in Florida last month.” One of the most effective ways to protest is to endanger someone’s financial wellbeing. (CNN)

– Speaking of Fox television talking heads, Ralph Peters is calling it quits from the network: “Four decades ago, as a U.S. Army second lieutenant, I took an oath to ‘support and defend the Constitution.’ In moral and ethical terms, that oath never expires. As Fox’s assault on our constitutional order intensified, spearheaded by its after-dinner demagogues, I had no choice but to leave.” Daily Pnut’s owner will never, ever sell the publication to an outfit like Fox or Sinclair Broadcast Group. (WaPo)

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