Investing in Dictators & Disaster | Tech Eviscerates the Media Business

“I will tell you how to become rich. Close the doors. Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.”

“It is not necessary to do extraordinary things to get extraordinary results.”

“Somebody once said that in looking for people to hire, you look for three qualities: integrity, intelligence, and energy. And if you don’t have the first, the other two will kill you. You think about it; it’s true. If you hire somebody without [integrity], you really want them to be dumb and lazy.”

– Warren Buffett (One of the 26 billionaires whose wealth when pooled is as much as half the world)

This is Why We Invest in Index Funds Rather than Dictators: It seemed like a sure bet, but a gamble nonetheless. Now Russia’s years long, $25 billion investment in grooming Venezuelan camaraderie could very well be tanking. On Wednesday  the US and multiple other countries recognized opposition leader, Juan Guaido, as interim president, a full-frontal denouncement of current strongman, Nicolas Maduro. Russian officials spent the day hurling opprobrium at the US, casting it as the sinister puppeteer illegally fomenting regime change around the world. Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev called events in Caracas a “quasi-coup,” while Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Maduro’s opposition were becoming “pawns in someone else’s very dirty and criminal game.”

In recent years, President Vladimir Putin had become Venezuela’s patron, poking a stick in the eye of the US along the way. In exchange for loans and bailouts, Russia now owns significant parts of at least five oil fields in Venezuela, which holds the world’s largest reserves, along with 30 years’ worth of future output from two Caribbean natural gas fields. Additionally, Russia’s arms industry had acquired a multibillion-dollar customer. If the opposition prevails and continues to gain power, political and military contacts between Moscow and Caracas would undoubtedly decrease. Putin’s domestic opponents quickly seized on Venezuela’s revolution as a lost cause for Russia. One opposition activist lamented that, besides losing billions of dollars “invested over there,” Maduro will soon have a villa in Moscow’s gated neighborhoods that are favored by the ruling elite.

Additional reads:

• “Venezuela Military Backs Maduro, as Russia Warns U.S. Not to Intervene.” (NYT)
• “Venezuela’s crisis: How did it get so bad?”  (WaPo)
• “In a month, Venezuela’s Guaido emerged from obscurity to challenge Maduro.” (Reuters)
• “Venezuela crisis: Russia condemns bid to ‘usurp power’ from Maduro.” (BBC)
• “Venezuela’s oil gives Maduro little leverage against the United States.” (WaPo)
• “The risk of a catastrophic US intervention in Venezuela is real.” (Guardian)

Getting Ready for the Warm Weather? Not Like That. The climate crisis is particularly evident in the Arctic, which is heating up twice as fast as the rest of the planet. Shrinking sea ice is exposing more water and territory to exploitation and access. Shipping lanes are opening up, and a new military buildup is intensifying as regional powers attempt to secure northern borders that, until recently, were reinforced by a continental-sized wall of ice. Russia is opening and strengthening cold war bases on its Kola peninsula in the far northwest; in turn, Norway has been beefing up its own military presence in the high Arctic. (Guardian)

Stopping a Tariff Agreement on a Snowy Evening: US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross spoke on Thursday about next week’s trade talks with the 30-member Chinese delegation that is coming to Washington. The world’s two largest economies are trying to meet a March 1 deadline to resolve their trade disputes. Ross tried to chill expectations for the high-level talks, saying “we’re miles and miles from getting a resolution and frankly that shouldn’t be too surprising. Trade is very complicated, there’s lots and lots of issues, not just how many soybeans and how much LNG.” If a deal can’t be reached by March 2 to increase China’s protection of US intellectual property, curb industrial subsidies, and open Chinese markets to US companies, President  Trump has vowed to increase tariffs to 25 percent on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports. (Reuters) Additional read: “U.S. importers stocked up on Chinese goods ahead of tariffs, says shipper Maersk.” (Reuters)

Results Are In: Criminals Beware. Felix Tshisekedi was sworn in Thursday as the new president of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, its first in 18 years. In his inauguration speech, Tshisekedi promised to tackle corruption in the mineral-rich, central African nation. The US State Department voiced its approval of  the new government despite earlier statements criticizing the gross lack of transparency in the vote. Opposition front runner, Martin Fayulu, had contested the results of the December 30 election, claiming it was rigged. (NPR)

We want answers! Oh wait, no; we just want money. There was some speculation about how Saudi Arabia’s delegation would fare at the economic forum in Davos, Switzerland. Western allies, including some US politicians, called on Riyadh to hold accountable those responsible for journalist Jamal  Khashoggi’s murder; the CIA even concluded that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had ordered the killing. But the Saudi delegation had dozens of meetings in Davos, no Western investor pulled out, and on Wednesday Swiss President Ueli Maurer said his country has moved on and just wants to build strong relations with the rich, oil-producing kingdom that is itself a major global investor. (Reuters)

– Kim Jong-un Praises Trump’s ‘Unusual Determination’ to Hold Second Summit (NYT, $)

Federal Workers are Fed Up: The longest running shutdown in American history is eroding what’s left of highly-educated civil servants’ good will, already challenged by years of pay freezes, unpredictable budgets, and disdain from the White House for government workers. A computer security specialist in California who worked for NASA’s Ames Research Center for 14 years stated “they’re relying on the good will of the higher skilled workforce. And that’s what they drain down the most quickly in these stupid shutdowns.” (NYT)

Additional reads:

• “Trump Blinked. Could A Shutdown Deal Be Next?” (NPR)
• ‘Get a loan,’ Commerce chief tells unpaid federal workers.” (Reuters)
• “There is only one way to break Trump’s pathology. Pelosi has found it.” (WaPo)
• “Nancy Pelosi is an alien species to Trump – and he has no idea what to do.” (Guardian)
• “Collapse of Two Plans to End Shutdown Propels Urgent Negotiations.” (NYT)
• – Shutdown Squeezes IRS Workers Just As The Tax-Filing Season Is About To Start (NPR)

– In Another Recession, It Could Be Tough For Washington To Boost The Economy (NPR) And IMF official questions Fed’s global role in next crisis(Reuters)

Everyone Wants To Be a Software Developer. So much so that “The Hard Part of Computer Science? Getting Into Class.”  (NYT) But perhaps we are at peak software developers: Are we in the Middle of a Programming Bubble? (Thinkfaster) But if you do get hired by Google, don’t forget that they dropped “Don’t be Evil” from its Code of Conduct. Now it’s okay to be evil or to sometimes be evil: “Google Urged the U.S. to Limit Protection For Activist Workers: While Google publicly supported employees who protested company policies, it quietly asked the government to narrow the right to organize over work email” (Bloomberg) In the past few years, techies loved to preach about the unifying and amazing aspects of technology: connecting the world, etc…now we now that connecting the world might just mean helping the Russians better influence elections. Here’s “The risk of thinking of your job as a higher calling” (Quartz) First software and robots came for the low wage jobs, and I did not speak out, Then they came for the trade jobs, then the professional jobs…then they took my job as techie gamer, and there was no one left to speak for me or let me play video games: “DeepMind AI Challenges Pro StarCraft II Players, Wins Almost Every Match(ExtremeTech)”

Some reporters and people are so fed up with technology and Twitter that they are advocating “Never Tweet: The controversy over the Covington students shows why American journalism should disengage from Twitter.” (NYT, $) And others are saying to tread lightly with Facebook: “He Reported on Facebook. Now He Approaches It With Caution.” (NYT, $) If you think the Twitter CEO is trying to fix Twitter, then you sir are mistaken: “Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey: The Rolling Stone Interview: Sometimes 280 characters just aren’t enough. The social media mogul takes on his critics — and tries to explain who he really is (Rolling Stone) Meanwhile no one at Twitter or the government can pinpoint not just what Jack Dorsey is doing or who posted the viral video: Who Posted Viral Video of Covington Students and Protester? Congress Wants to Know (NYT, $) “Why Silicon Valley’s ‘growth at any cost’ is the new ‘unsafe at any speed’: For years, Ashkan Soltani has warned of Facebook’s privacy-eroding tendencies.” (Ars Technica)

No One Wants to be in the Media Business (except Daily Pnut and Media Mobilize): ‘Upsetting And Disappointing’: BuzzFeed To Cut 15 Percent Of Its Workforce (NPR) “Jill Abramson’s Book Charts Journalism’s Stormy Seas, With Some Personal Regrets and Score-Settling” (NYT, $) “Adam Moss bids farewell to New York magazine – but he’s not done playing yet: Moss, who is stepping down after 15 years as editor, reflects on the ‘child-like wonder’ of journalism, publishing against the grain and, of course, Trump” (Guardian)

“I insist on a lot of time being spent, almost every day, to just sit and think. That is very uncommon in American business. I read and think. So I do more reading and thinking, and make less impulse decisions than most people in business. I do it because I like this kind of life.”

“It’s better to hang out with people better than you. Pick out associates whose behavior is better than yours and you’ll drift in that direction.”

– Warren Buffett