2020 Predictions
June 12, 2020
“The difference between a politician and a statesman is that a politician thinks about the next election while the statesman thinks about the next generation.” ― James Freeman Clarke
Biden’s Election Strategy: Chillax & Let Trump Tweet Until He Loses
(Dilip Vishwanat via Getty Images)
In all fairness, it would be politically challenging for any president seeking reelection to be dealing simultaneously with a global pandemic, a severe economic downturn and widespread civil unrest. For President Trump, many of his challenges are of his own making. And while the president seems to truly believe he can turn his magical reality-bending powers into political gold this election year, multiple new polls show his support slipping and his challenger’s lead growing.
Nate Cohn’s analysis in the Upshot finds that Trump’s slippage is driven largely by his eroding support among white voters, particularly those said to be his base. Cohn averaged together recent high-quality polls and found that Democratic challenger Joe Biden’s overall lead over Trump has expanded to 10 points, up from six points earlier this spring. Specifically, among non-college-educated white voters, Trump’s lead over Biden has slipped by 10 points, to 21 points versus 31 points earlier this spring.
The latest Washington Post-Schar School poll may hold the answer to why this is happening: There’s a large shift underway in how white voters are viewing the issues underlying protests over George Floyd’s killing. 74 percent support the protests; 69 percent say Floyd’s killing shows broader problems in how police treat black Americans. 61 percent of Americans give President Trump negative marks for his handling of the protests, with 35 percent saying they approve of how he’s responded. Among registered or likely voters, Trump’s approval rating is now a negative 13.2 percentage points, down from negative 6.7 points a month ago. Such a significant national lead places Biden in a stronger position to oust an incumbent president than any challenger since Bill Clinton in the summer of 1992.
Daily Pnut Commentary: There is little doubt that election season is in full fervor now that there are less than five months until the 2020 elections and by the frequency of news coverage about the election. The future is impossible to predict (Exhibit A: this year’s pandemic and Exhibit B: mass protests this year) but given the polling and the vibe of the nation we believe right now that a Trump re-election is very unlikely.
Trump in 2016 won because he was the protest vote. In 2020 it looks like he will lose because he’s on the other end of protest votes. Voters will take their protest from the streets and their shelter in place straight to the ballot box. 2020 is shaping out to be much more a referendum on Trump’s leadership, then it is on whether Biden is a great candidate.
There are just too many states in play that in a normal election year should automatically vote Republican but this year due to Trump’s own undoing are battleground states. Trump was a political insurgent in 2016 and played the part very well. In 2020 he’s battling two political insurgencies (protests and pandemic) and as a counterinsurgent he has failed to make the transition from disruptor to stable leadership. And the political insurgency Trump needs to tamp down to win in 2020 is simply too widespread and impassioned. Every single campaign fundraising dollar Trump raises will need to be spread across too many states thereby diffusing his main advantage of fundraising.
The greatest risk to Biden losing the election is that people who are against Trump assume that his loss is a foregone conclusion, and then don’t actually turn out to vote. The second greatest risk to Biden is if Russia or China are able to leverage Facebook to push Anti-Biden and conduct information operations to influence the American electorate similar to what happened in 2016.
If Trump loses, there will be serious political-economic-social-prestige ramifications for him, The Republican Party, and his supporters. If Trump wins, then the fate of democracy in America will be an open question and we could become a banana republic as Trump’s authoritarian tendencies will likely go unchecked.
- Trump defiant as cultural change sweeps America (CNN)
- Trump’s most loyal media ally promised a pro-Trump poll. It didn’t deliver — and then pulled its story. (WaPo, $)
- Trump to accept nomination in Jacksonville after moving most of convention out of Charlotte (CNN)
- Republicans fear Trump’s weakened standing jeopardizes the party in November (WaPo, $)
- Democrats’ Blue-Texas Fever Dream May Finally Become a Reality: A veteran Lone Star strategist sees recent polling as a four-alarm fire for Team Trump—but Biden’s campaign shouldn’t get too cocky. (Vanity Fair)
- Trump’s Tulsa Rally Is Just More Racist Trolling (NYT, $)
- Trump Campaign Faces Backlash Over Next Campaign Rally (NPR)
- Biden slams Facebook for letting Trump run wild and demands policy changes in open letter (TechCrunch) & Mark Zuckerberg Faces More Backlash at Facebook Over Trump (Bloomberg, $)
War (Crimes)! What Is It Good For?
- President Trump issued an executive order Thursday authorizing sanctions against International Criminal Court (ICC) employees involved in an investigation into whether American forces committed war crimes in Afghanistan. The order allows Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, in consultation with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, to block any assets in the US belonging to ICC employees involved in the probe.
- The ICC prosecutor wants to investigate possible crimes committed between 2003 and 2014, including alleged mass killings of civilians by the Taliban as well as the alleged torture of prisoners by Afghan authorities and, to a lesser extent, by the CIA and US forces. Trump administration officials said the Hague-based tribunal’s investigation threatens to infringe on US national sovereignty, and accused Russia of manipulating the tribunal to serve Moscow’s ends.
- Pompeo called the ICC a “kangaroo court,” and warned other nations that their people could be next, “especially those from NATO countries who fight terrorism in Afghanistan right alongside us.” Human rights activists said Trump’s action “demonstrates contempt for the global rule of law” and represents a “blatant attempt at obstruction.” (Reuters)
Hey All You Cool Cats And Kittens…Stop It
(Leon Neal via Getty Images)
- The slaughter of jaguars across their range from Mexico to Argentina is on the rise. The big cats are already threatened with extinction due to habitat loss and revenge killing for livestock predation. Experts in wildlife trafficking have seen cases linked to Chinese citizens or destinations.
- In Bolivia, authorities intercepted China-bound packages containing hundreds of jaguar canine teeth, which are fashioned into jewelry. An independent wildlife crime specialist who investigated the jaguar trade in Suriname and Bolivia in recent years said she and others had warned officials the jaguar trade seemed to be surging. But she noted: “Tackling wildlife crime in most if not all Latin American countries has had zero priority until only very recently.”
- A new study just published in Conservation Biology provides a more comprehensive view of the illegal trade, bringing together data from all of Central and South America. The findings confirm that seizures of jaguar parts have risen tremendously throughout the region, and that an increasing presence of businesses from China working on large development projects coincides with an escalating legal and illegal wildlife trade, including big cats. (NYT)
Additional World News
- The MMIWG Report Took Three Years to Write. Canada Is Ignoring It. (Chatelaine)
- North Korea Vows to Boost Nuclear Program, Saying U.S. Diplomacy Failed (NYT, $)
- Twitter deletes 170,000 accounts linked to China influence campaign (Guardian)
- Lebanon’s Currency Plunges, and Protesters Surge Into Streets (NYT, $)
- The country building a ‘new London’ every year (BBC)
- Zoom admits cutting off activists’ accounts in obedience to China (Guardian)
- Arms seized by U.S., missiles used to attack Saudi Arabia ‘of Iranian origin’: U.N. (Reuters)
- Investors, No Longer in Denial About Grim Outlook, Drive Market Down (NYT, $)
COVID-19
- The World Reopens, Despite Skyrocketing Coronavirus Cases (NYT, $)
- Global report: India reports surge in Covid-19 cases as lockdown eased (Guardian)
- Coronavirus Reopenings as a Marshmallow Test for Society (NYT, $)
- Quarantine has changed us — and it’s not all bad (Vox) & What If Working From Home Goes on … Forever? (NYT, $)
National Lampoon’s Campaign Vacation
- Americans may be divided over how to restart the economy, anxious about new coronavirus spikes, and raging over police brutality and racial injustice, but President Trump’s reelection campaign resumes — he believes hitting the campaign trail will send a positive message that the country’s problems are under control.
- The real reason may be that, with just five months to go before the election, his allies are worried he’s lost ground during the pandemic and needs to get back to campaigning. Buttressing that worry are national polls showing Trump trailing his democratic challenger, Joe Biden.
- So, filling up the president’s travel agenda are in-person fundraisers, trips to his luxury resort in New Jersey, and campaign rallies in Oklahoma, Florida, Arizona and North Carolina.
- This Thursday, Trump flew into Dallas for an event on the nation’s racial disparities, followed by a $10 million fundraiser at a private home. Afterward he headed to his luxury golf club in Bedminster, NJ. Over the weekend, Trump will deliver a commencement address in New York; next week he’ll headline a campaign rally in Tulsa. In July, the president will be in South Dakota to view fireworks. (Politico, CNN)
- People Attending Trump Rally Cannot Sue if They Get Virus (NYT, $)
- The Parallel Universe of Ivanka Trump, America’s Dissociated Princess (Vanity Fair)
- Ivanka Trump and Charles Koch Fuel a Cancel-Culture Clash at Wichita State (New Yorker, $): This is a fascinating article about the intersection of wealth, politics, education, and local politics.
The Schism Between The Military and Trump
- Top Pentagon Military Chief Says Accompanying Trump Was Mistake (NPR)
- Esper orders review of recent National Guard deployments (CNN)
- For Black Veterans, Confederate Base Names Viewed as a Painful Stain (NYT, $)
- Quarrel between Trump and military leaders intensifies as Milley apologizes for photo op (WaPo, $)
- Trump Wanted to Fire Esper Over Troops Dispute (WSJ, $)
- A Letter to the West Point Class of 2020, from fellow members of the Long Gray Line (Medium)
- Trump might be losing his trust in the military. But he should worry more that the military is losing its trust in his leadership. Additional quote: “The day the soldiers stop bringing you their problems is the day you stopped leading them. They have either lost confidence that you can help them or concluded that you do not care. Either case is a failure of leadership.” ― Colin Powell
Black Lives Matter
- Trump says he’s finalizing executive order on police reform (Politico)
- Seattle protesters take over city blocks to create police-free ‘autonomous zone’ (Guardian)
- ‘Go Back To Your Bunker,’ Seattle Mayor Tells Trump In Spat Over Protests (NPR)
- G.O.P., Blindsided by Public’s Rage, Is Pressed to Act on Police Reform (NYT, $)
- Ta-Nehisi Coates on George Floyd, police protests, and hope (Vox)
- How Public Opinion Has Moved on Black Lives Matter (NYT, $)
- What ‘Defund the Police’ Actually Means (Atlantic, $)
- No Sign Of Antifa So Far In Justice Department Cases Brought Over Unrest (NPR)
Weekend Reads
- The Internet’s most important—and misunderstood—law, explained (Ars Technica)
- We Need a Trick to Feel Our Joys as Deep as Our Griefs (NYT, $)
- Ghosts at the museum (1843)
- The Man Who Coaches Husbands on How to Avoid Divorce (NYT, $)
- The haunting of Girlstown (Vox)
- Will the Banks Collapse? (Atlantic, $)
- Who Discovered the First Vaccine? (Wired)
- The Biggest Psychological Experiment in History Is Running Now (Scientific American)
- Can You Boil an Egg Too Long? (NYT, $) We love boiled eggs at Daily Pnut as we love things with high utility: healthy, wholesome, and a good snack whether at home or on the go.