A Mineral Deal, A Photoshop Scam, A Stock Market Rollercoaster, & A Happiness Index

May 1, 2025

Hello, readers – happy Thursday! Today, we’ll be talking about a mineral deal, maybe a nuclear war, the Middle East, Syria’s violence, the stock market, falling for Photoshop, and a happiness index.

Here’s some good news: Cycling in London has increased by more than 50% in the past two years, according to official counts, with up to 139,000 people cycling a day across 30 locations. Also, the only Black, all-female unit to serve in Europe during World War II, known as the “Six Triple Eight,” was honored Tuesday with the Congressional Gold Medal.

“Find something you’re passionate about and keep tremendously interested in it.” – Julia Child

A Big Deal For Ukraine

(Zelenskyy/Trump/Vance by Andrew Harnik via Getty Images)

Yesterday evening, the U.S. and Ukraine signed off on their long-discussed mineral deal – Washington will establish a new reconstruction and investment fund in Ukraine in exchange for access to the country’s rich rare earth mineral reserves. The deal implicitly tells Russia to stop its attacks on the country as it’s now a hub of U.S. investment. Or a neo-colony, depending on how you look at things.

“This agreement signals clearly to Russia that the Trump administration is committed to a peace process centered on a free, sovereign, and prosperous Ukraine over the long term,” said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent soon after the ink dried. “President Trump envisioned this partnership between the American people and the Ukrainian people to show both sides’ commitment to lasting peace and prosperity in Ukraine.”

While Russia can still attack Ukraine in the near term, the deal will grant Kyiv more U.S. military and make future peace deals more likely to actually hold. While that will bring the White House closer to conflict with Russia, the Trump administration has apparently calculated that access to Ukraine’s mineral wealth – estimated to be worth several trillion dollars – is worth the risk.

Crashing Out Over Kashmir

Of course, when one door closes, another one opens. Pakistan and India seem to be headed towards a military clash in the wake of last week’s terrorist attack in Kashmir, which killed 26 Indian tourists. As diplomatic relations between the two neighbors have degraded over the past few days, Pakistan’s information minister said yesterday that he has “credible intelligence” that India is preparing a military strike on his country, adding that “any such military adventurism by India would be responded to assuredly and decisively.”

Both China and the U.S. have called on both sides to de-escalate the conflict, as the South Asian neighbors both have nuclear arsenals. Last week, Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi said that any conflict between the two countries will “not serve the fundamental interests of each side,” and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio echoed that sentiment yesterday.

In terms of a possible nuclear war, Pakistan has a policy of “full spectrum deterrence,” meaning it will leverage its nuclear arsenal against wider military actions or the threat of nuclear attacks from India. India has a “no first use” policy, meaning it will only use its nuclear weapons if it’s first struck by another nuclear attack. So, at least that nuclear war isn’t here… yet.

A Memorial Day To Remember

(UNRWA worker by Bashar Taleb via Getty Images)

Israel had a busy day yesterday (its Independence Day). In the International Court of Justice, a legal advisor for the U.S. State Department defended the country’s nationwide ban on UNRWA, the U.N. agency for Palestinian aid. “There is no legal requirement that an occupying power permit a specific third state or international organization to conduct activity in occupied territory that would compromise its security interests,” the lawyer told the court, adding that other aid groups could easily fill the gaps left by UNRWA.
Meanwhile, Israel’s latest siege of Gaza turned two months old yesterday. No food, fuel, or aid has entered the enclave since March 2, leaving millions of Palestinians exposed to mass hunger. “We spend our days between looking for water and food and charging batteries so we can see at night, and waiting to die,” said one Gazan. Most people are surviving on just one meal a day, though Israel’s Foreign Ministry claims that “there is no shortage of aid” on the ground.
Topping it all off, wildfires spread across Israel yesterday, prompting mass evacuations and sending at least 19 people to the hospital. Firefighters said that the blazes were the most extreme the country has seen in years, though there are conflicting claims regarding how they began – Israel has blamed Hamas for the fires, while Israeli outlet Haaretz and the Palestinian Wafa news agency claimed that they were actually started by Israeli settlers in the West Bank.

Deadly Division In Damascus

Clashes just outside the Syrian capital city of Damascus ended with at least 16 people dead yesterday. The violence marks the second day of fighting in Druze-majority areas near Damascus – the Druze are an Arab minority religious group with a population of roughly 500,000 in Syria. They mostly live in the Suwayda governorate and other towns south of Damascus, and are pushing for their homelands to be granted more autonomy from Syria’s Islamist-backed government.
The violence was sparked by a viral fake audio recording of a Druze cleric supposedly insulting the Prophet Mohammad. “I did not say that, and whoever made it is evil and wants to incite strife between components of the Syrian people,” said the cleric. Israel has promised to launch missiles at Syrian government targets “if the violence against the Druze did not stop,” though local Druze populations say they haven’t asked for Israel’s help.

More Mixed Nuts

Mr. Trump’s Wild Ride

The U.S. economy was on a rollercoaster yesterday. In the morning, data released by the Commerce Department revealed that the GDP contracted at an annual rate of 0.3% in the first quarter of the year, after growing at a pace of 2.4% at the end of 2024. A shrinking economy doesn’t exactly scream “excellence,” so, naturally, the stock market took a tumble – soon after the news broke, the Dow was down 1%, the S&P 500 was down 1.4%, and the Nasdaq was down 1.9%.
A few hours later, the stock market rebounded thanks to more data being released – this time, a report said the measure of inflation that the Fed likes to use slowed in March. Inflation decelerated to 2.3%, closer to the Fed’s goal of 2%, from February’s reading of 2.7%. By the end of the day, the S&P 500 was up 0.1%, extending its winning streak to a seventh day. The Dow rose 0.3%, and the Nasdaq composite slipped 0.1%.

“Fake News” About Fake Tattoos

The Trump administration continues to turn heads with its deportation policies. On Tuesday night, President Trump was questioned by ABC correspondent Terry Moran about the deportation of Kilmar Ábrego García – specifically, a photo that the administration claims is of MS-13 tattoos on Ábrego García’s hands but is clearly photoshopped.
Moran first said that Trump could easily bring Ábrego García back to the U.S., and Trump said, “I could,” contradicting his administration’s repeated claims that he could not. Trump then insisted Ábrego García had the tattoos, and asked Moran, “Why don’t you just say, ‘Yes, he does’ and, you know, go on to something else. “You do such a disservice … This is why people no longer believe the news, because it’s fake news.”

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Young, Wild, Free, and Unhappy

The kids are not alright – in fact, according to a recent wellbeing study, they’re doing historically not-alright. The study was published yesterday in the journal Nature Mental Health and used data from Gallup’s 2023 Global Flourishing Study, which surveyed over 200,000 people across 20 countries.
Normally, people’s happiness throughout their life resembles a U-shaped curve – younger people are happier, their happiness declines when they’re middle-aged, and then it goes back up when they’re older. But according to the study’s findings, that smile-shaped curve is now closer to a 😐 emoji. The survey data shows that, besides being less happy than before, young people are now struggling with their physical and mental health, finding meaning in life, establishing quality relationships, and becoming financially secure.
The study combined those factors with others to produce a “flourishing” score for each country covered in the survey data. The U.K., Brazil, and Australia all posted low “flourishing” scores until respondents turned 50, and the U.S. had the highest score differential between young and old people. “It is a pretty stark picture,” said the study’s lead author, adding that its findings raise the question: “Are we sufficiently investing in the well-being of youth?”

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