Fighting Hybrid Wars
October 9, 2019
“Underestimation of nonconventional units or a guerrilla enemy by regular forces is a cardinal military sin.” – Howard R. Simpson
“So in war, the way is to avoid what is strong, and strike at what is weak.” -Sun Tzu
Russia’s Baba Yaga Military Unit
America’s global strategy may be all over the place, but Russia’s is laser focused: destabilize Europe, topple NATO. Western security officials have recently discovered Unit 29155, the top secret elite unit inside the Russian intelligence system. Skilled in subversion, sabotage and assassination, the unit has been operating at least a decade as part of a coordinated, ongoing Kremlin campaign.
It’s unclear how often Unit 29155 is mobilized, and western intelligence officials warn it’s impossible to know when and where its operatives will strike. What is clear is the degree to which President Putin is fighting the West with his brand of hybrid warfare — a blend of propaganda, cyberhacking, disinformation, and open military confrontation.
“I think we had forgotten how organically ruthless the Russians could be,” said a retired US intelligence officer and former defense attache at America’s embassy in Moscow, who had been unaware of the unit’s existence. A retired Russian military officer with knowledge of the unit said it specialized “diversionary” missions … “bombings, murders anything.”
Unit 29155 is tight-knit; it resides within the command hierarchy of the GRU, Russia’s military intelligence agency. Its missions are so secret its existence is likely unknown even to other GRU operatives. Unlike the two GRU cyber units responsible for hacking into the DNC and Clinton campaign servers in 2016 from thousands of miles away, Unit 29155 members travel to and from European countries. The group is linked to the attempted poisoning in 2015 of a Bulgarian arms dealer, the failed 2016 coup in Montenegro, and the poisoning of former GRU spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter in 2018.
The Russian Race Race
- The Senate Select Committee on Intelligence has released a new report detailing how the Russian government used social media to target African Americans in the 2016 presidential election. In Facebook pages, Instagram content and Twitter posts, Russian information operatives working for the Internet Research Agency (IRA) had an “overwhelming operational emphasis on race….”
- According to the report: “The Committee found that IRA social media activity was overtly and almost invariably supportive of then-candidate Trump.” It also said the IRA sought to harm Democrat Hillary Clinton and support Donald Trump” at the direction of the Kremlin.”
- In a written statement, Republican Committee chair Richard Burr (R-NC) said: “By flooding social media with false reports, conspiracy theories, and trolls, and by exploiting existing divisions, Russia is trying to breed distrust of our democratic institutions and our fellow Americans.”
- The committee’s work affirmed the conclusions of earlier investigations on Russian interference in the elections. (NPR)
Generation Xi
- China’s Communist Party has mastered the mushroom example of how to grow patriots: keep ’em in the dark and feed ’em … propaganda. The country’s leaders have never hesitated to use state power to brainwash their people, including employing ubiquitous surveillance and harsh tactics against dissenters.
- But the current, overwhelmingly enthusiastic displays of patriotism, especially among young people, really show how skillful the party’s propaganda machine is at using symbolism in the Age of Instagram. (NYT)
- Apple Hides Taiwan Flag in Hong Kong (emojipedia)
- Adam Silver reacts as Chinese TV cancels NBA game broadcasts (ESPN, one of the few times we’ve referenced ESPN in Daily Pnut)
- China Has Begun Moving Xinjiang Muslim Detainees To Formal Prisons, Relatives Say 7:00 (NPR)
- US puts visa restrictions on Chinese officials over abuses of Muslims in Xinjiang (CNBC)
- Hong Kong’s Leader Warns ‘No Options Ruled Out’ If Protests Continue (NPR)
When Trump Is Away, Turkey Will Play
- On Monday President Trump received a tsunami of bipartisan criticism for telling his counterpart in Turkey he would withdraw US troops from northeastern Syria, effectively abandoning US-allied Kurdish forces and opening the flood gate to a new Turkish offensive.
- Tuesday morning Trump tried walking back his statements, tweeting: “We may be in the process of leaving Syria, but in no way have we abandoned the Kurds, who are special people and wonderful fighters.”
- However, despite congressional threats of sanctions and Trump’s claims to “obliterate” Turkey’s economy should it do anything “off-limits,” the dam had already burst.
- Turkish officials said Ankara would not be “controlled by threats” and would continue with plans to attack Kurdish-led forces. (Guardian)
The Capital Doth Protest Too Much
- Ecuador’s president Lenín Moreno has moved his government from the capital in Quito to the coastal city of Guayaquil amid violent protests over the end of fuel subsidies.
- Protesters were hurling petrol bombs and stones, ransacking and vandalizing public buildings, and clashing with police.
- Moreno appeared on television Monday night and said: “[This] is not a protest of social dissatisfaction faced with a government decision but the looting, vandalism and violence show there is an organised political motive to destabilise the government.”
- Moreno blamed political opponents of orchestrating an attempted coup and infiltrating the protests as part of a plot to topple his government, without offering any evidence. (Guardian)
The Man Who Sold the World (to be Relevant)
- In one of the most duplicitously sanctimonious about-faces ever seen, Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) transformed himself from Candidate Donald Trump’s fiercest critic to President Trump’s most sycophantic defender. Even by Washington’s cynical shape-shifting standards, Graham’s transformation has been a thing of wonder.
- As he explained earlier this year, he did it to try being “relevant,” hoping to have the president’s ear to “get some really good outcomes for the country,” and maybe help himself politically.
- Graham continued praising the president and rationalizing his untenable positions, even as Trump became increasingly erratic. Graham told himself: by staying close to Trump, he could influence him and prevent horribly bad decisions.
- The world may have seen Graham as craven, but he saw himself as someone who could save the world, or at least the Kurds. Then came Trump’s decision to abandon the Kurds, without so much as a wave to Lindsey. But that’s the thing about a Faustian bargain — the price is high, the reward illusory, and it usually ends badly. (Politico)
- Nirvana – The Man Who Sold The World (MTV Unplugged)
Mitt Won’t Quit
- When Utah senator and two-time unsuccessful GOP candidate for president Mitt Romney came forward with criticism of President Trump ‘s off the cuff decision to withdraw troops from Syria, some Republicans saw an opportunity for a primary challenge.
- “There’s a half billion dollars on the sidelines from guys who are fed up with Trump,” one donor said. Alas, Mitt has no stomach for a primary challenge, considering Trump’s almost impenetrable base.
- But there are signs of a crack in the firewall, and in the event of a House vote to impeach, Romney believes he has more power as a senator who will decide Trump’s fate in an impeachment trial.
- An adviser noted: “He could be the voice of conscience in the Republican caucus.” That probably explains why in recent days Romney has been reaching out privately to key players in the Republican resistance. (Vanity Fair)
- Donald Trump isolated as Republican allies revolt over US withdrawal from Syria: Lindsey Graham and Mitch McConnell lead condemnation of foreign policy move that could prove ‘disaster in the making’ (Guardian)
- Top Military Officers Unload on Trump: The commander in chief is impulsive, disdains expertise, and gets his intelligence briefings from Fox News. What does this mean for those on the front lines? (Atlantic, $)
Additional USA News
- Trump Administration Blocks Ambassador’s Testimony, A Key Witness In Ukraine Scandal (NPR)
- The battle against America’s loneliness crisis (Guardian)
- ‘In my great and unmatched wisdom’: Trump makes modest claim about his intellect: Trump – the ‘very stable genius’ – is no stranger to narcissistic statements, and he was at it again on Monday afternoon (Guardian)
- Why Evangelicals Support Donald Trump (NYT, $)
- The Huge Waste in the U.S. Health System A study finds evidence for how to reduce some of it, but also a large blind spot on how to remove the rest. (NYT, $)
I Can’t Believe It’s Not Meat And You Don’t Like It
- Plant-based meat products, like Impossible and Beyond burgers, have the potential to be great for the world. They can end factory farming, be more sustainable, address global warming, and offer a way to feed a growing middle class its favorite foods without destroying the planet along the way. As the industry matures its offerings can get cheaper, healthier, and more varied. So why is there a growing backlash against it becoming mainstream?
- The plant-based meat critiques boil down to four broad criticisms:
- They are highly processed
- They contain GMOs
- They’re not that healthy — or even hazardous to your health
- They’re aesthetically objectionable as “fake” food. (Vox)
- An excellent longread on Impossible Foods we read this weekend: Can a Burger Help Solve Climate Change? Eating meat creates huge environmental costs. Impossible Foods thinks it has a solution. (New Yorker, $)
LAST MORSELS
“Happiness consists in getting enough sleep. Just that, nothing more.” – Robert A. Heinlein