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VP Debate: Last week started off with a sleepy debate between Democratic Vice Presidential nominee Tim Kaine and his Republican rival Mike Pence. Pence won points on style and sounding “Presidential” but spent most of the 90 minutes pretending that Donald Trump didn’t say things that he very clearly said. Kaine came off as earnest, brimming with plans but smug and constantly interrupting. You can see a more detailed update here.
Hacking: On Friday the White House formally accused Russia of its role in hacking the DNC and trying to manipulate the US election. Putin, who has essentially neutered Russian democracy, has expressed hostility towards Hillary Clinton and a bromantic fondness of Donald Trump. Russia has directly intervened in other elections by financing far-right parties across Europe, invading neighboring countries and propping up strongmen in others. Disrupting the US election would be an ultimate trophy and its clear the White House is not amused.
As if on cue, Wikileaks released excerpts of Hillary’s speeches to Wall Street. In the excerpts she describes herself as a moderate, out of touch with the middle class and having a “private position” on issues that differ from her public position. Now, on a normal day these leaks would dominate the news cycle, but as you will see below they were completely overshadowed.
Polls: Despite Pence’s decent performance the Trump campaign couldn’t arrest the negative momentum in the polls that started after the first Presidential debate. By Friday morning FiveThirtyEight was already giving Hillary a 78% chance of victory, and then this happened:
Trumptastrophe: On Friday afternoon the Washington Post released a video of Donald Trump making lewd and perverted comments in which he appeared to brag about sexually assaulting women by “grab[bing] them by the p***y” and trying to sleep with a married woman. The leak was so damning that it forced Trump to do something he hadn’t done yet, apologize. Well, sorta apologize.
In his first “apology” he said that this was locker room banter and not worse than what Bill Clinton told him on the golf course. He also brought up Bill Clinton again during a second attempt at apologizing and proceeded to retweet rape claims against Bill Clinton on Saturday. Unfortunately for Donald Trump, and fortunately for the rest of us, Bill Clinton is not on the ballot. Hillary Clinton is. Meanwhile, CNN uncovered other comments Trump had made on the Howard Stern show over the years indicating that this wasn’t a one off thing.
The comments and half-hearted apology set off an avalanche of outrage, giving the impression that the wheels on the #Trumptrain were flying off. Trump drew condemnation from all corners of the Republican establishment with politicians in the swing states of Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Arizona withdrawing support from the embattled nominee. Even John McCain finally withdrew his endorsement of Trump. Paul Ryan uninvited Donald Trump from a fundraising campaign in Wisconsin and Mitt Romney criticized Trump in Nevada, two other swing states. Even Trump’s running mate Mike Pence condemned Trump.
Things were much quieter among the Democrats, with Hillary Clinton focusing on preparing for the town-hall style debate on Sunday and saying that she wouldn’t comment on Trump’s remarks until the debate Sunday night.
You can read our full analysis of the leak here.
Debate Prep: This weekend’s turmoil has elevated tonight’s debate into a make-or-break moment for Donald Trump who already had to make up a lot of lost ground following his poor showing at the first Presidential debate. Here are a few ways tonight’s debate could go:
- Trump could take the civil route in the debate, apologizing for his remarks and then shifting the focus on issues like trade and Wall Street regulation where his message resonates better with voters. However, all the noise coming out of the Trump campaign indicates that this won’t be his approach.
- With little left to lose Trump might use this opportunity to bring up Bill’s sexual history, attempting to blame Hillary for them and tarring her as an “enabler.” It is unclear how undecided voters would react if Trump brings up these issues in an austere forum like a Presidential debate.
- Hillary is going into the debate with a solid lead but also with a lot to lose. Just like the last debate we expect her to try to hold Trump to task for his comments and get under his skin then step back and let him dig himself into a hole.
This is going to be must-watch television.
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