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Debate Prep: Commentators are expecting 80-100 million viewers for Monday night’s first presidential debate of the general election, making it one of the most watched non-sporting events in history. This will be the first time Clinton and Trump go head to head, and the stakes are high with as much as “8% of registered voters remaining undecided.” Here’s how it might play out:
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Clinton victory: For Clinton to be the perceived victor (there is no scorecard), she will need to show exactly why Trump isn’t qualified both in terms of temperament and knowledge. She’s spent a lot more time than Trump preparing and should have the facts down. It’s imperative to her campaign’s narrative that he comes across as impetuous, easily provoked and uninformed about the issues. The onus will be on her, not the moderator, to point out any lies Trump makes.
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Trump victory: He’s avoided traditional intense debate prep, apparently not even holding a mock debate. It’s expected that he will try to disarm Hillary with one-liners and a possible insult or two. He will attempt to look cool and simple in contrast to Hillary’s long-winded answers that come off as stiff and evasive. He also needs to avoid major mistakes when it comes to the facts or mentioning his small hands.
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Tie: It’s possible that, given the hyper-partisan nature of the election, both sides’ supporters walk away thinking they won. Assuming they get through the 90 minutes without a major gaffe or meltdown this is the most likely outcome.
Holding Steady: Hilldog held her own in the polls last week, stopping Trump’s momentum, even starting to turn it back a bit. Polls had her up nationwide, with an edge in battleground states like Colorado and Pennsylvania. Florida still looks like a tossup with Ohio and Iowa leaning towards Trump. Clinton kept a lower profile last week to prepare for the debate, drawing some jibes from Trump, who, we presume, already has all the answers bouncing around inside his head.
Cruz Around: Trump rival and Texas Senator Ted Cruz finally got around to endorsing Donald Trump on Friday, saying he was keeping his word that he would endorse the Republican candidate. Cruz, whose wife and father were both insulted by Donald Trump, had refused to endorse the candidate, using a primetime speech during the convention to tell people to “vote their conscience.” Trump hasn’t really changed track since Cruz said that, so we aren’t sure what Trump did to eventually appeal to Cruz’s conscience
Presidential Caucus: It’s standard practice for a party’s presidential nominee to get the endorsement of former presidents from the same party, but the 2016 race is far from normal. However, rumor has it that President George HW Bush said he would vote for Hillary Clinton come November. Bush’s spokesman hasn’t confirmed the rumor but refused to deny that Bush Sr. might break with party lines and vote for the Democrat. While he’s certainly the most prominent, he wouldn’t be the first Republican to back Clinton. Meanwhile, his son and occasional Uber driver Jeb has said he wouldn’t vote for Trump but wasn’t ready to vote for Clinton either.
Poisonous Candy: As if Bush Sr. needed further reinforcement, Donald Trump Jr. drew condemnation for tweeting an image that dehumanized Syrian refugees and compared them to poisoned Skittles. People criticized his tweet because of its grammar, its misleading aspect (you would need much more than a bowl of skittles before you found a “poisonous one”) and the fact that it borrowed from Nazi propaganda (they spoke about poisonous mushrooms). Turns out that the photo was taken by a refugee himself and Trump Jr. didn’t have permission to use it. Meanwhile, Wrigley, skittles’ parent company, responded by saying that “Skittles are candy. Refugees are people. We don’t feel it is an appropriate analogy.” Mic drop.
Trade Troubles: Trump’s anti-trade message has resonated deeply with a large part of the Republican base, helping propel him to the Party’s nomination. The message has caught the traditionally pro-free-trade Republican Party by surprise, off-footing many Republicans on down ballot races and even changing the party’s overall stance on agreements like NAFTA and TPP. Some commentators say the new position is welcome, as many Republican communities have been “hollowed out” by jobs going overseas. Others say the protectionism threatens the country with a deep recession and misses the point that machines, not trade, will threaten US jobs going forward.
Good articles:
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